"Another interesting pattern that appears to have emerged and may be a precursor to systemic trouble is found in the 10-year swap spread market, the bellwether for swap spreads. From a low of 32 basis points (bp) on May 19, 10-year swap spreads appear to be tracing out an impulse wave higher. The most severe widening of the year in the shortest relative time occurred into the August 4 high of 65 bp. This high is wave 3 of the developing impulse wave. Wave 4 appears to have traced out a symmetrical triangle into today’s low of 47 bp. If so, 10-year swap spreads are about to widen dramatically as wave 5 carries them beyond the wave 3 peak of 65 bp."