A few clarifications and highlights regarding the NYSE monthly chart I sent on Sep 08:

1. The resistance levels stated below are monthly levels; hence, even though the market traded through these levels, I expect the NYSE to close below them at the close of business on Sep 30.

2. The same monthly scale applies to the dynamic time cycle (1.618) depicted.
3. Look closely at the chart sent on Sep 5 and note the date inscribed near the top of the chart (9/22); this is the daily turn within the monthly pivot.

4. The daily structure is now complete (wave 5 of 5).

As difficult as it seems to fathom after 11 months of persistent buying pressure, a high of considerable importance should be seen +/- one day from the 9/22 projection.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A fivefold increase in margin debt at Nasdaq member firms prompted market data provider TrimTabs.com to warn Wednesday that "the bubble is back" in U.S. stocks. Margin debt rose to $26 billion at July 31 from $5.1 billion at Dec. 31 -- adding $19 billion in June and July alone. That figure represents 15 percent of the total outstanding, compared to 7.1 percent in March 2000. TrimTabs' warning follows regulatory agency NASD's investor alert Monday that trading "on margin" is up 25 percent year-to-date and many investors may underestimate the risks. The NASD alert suggests that Nasdaq members are being required to tighten margin rules after a period of relaxation, TrimTabs said. "When a loosening becomes a tightening, the affected stocks collapse. That is in part what happened in early 2000 when the Nasdaq tightened margin requirements on some of the more aggressive stocks."

Wave 5 of 5 daily territory; a correction should begin shortly. Initial target is previous wave 4 low (49 level) which is also .382 of entire structure beginning on 10/9/02. Two weekly closes >63.78 will cause me to revise analysis.

"Another interesting pattern that appears to have emerged and may be a precursor to systemic trouble is found in the 10-year swap spread market, the bellwether for swap spreads. From a low of 32 basis points (bp) on May 19, 10-year swap spreads appear to be tracing out an impulse wave higher. The most severe widening of the year in the shortest relative time occurred into the August 4 high of 65 bp. This high is wave 3 of the developing impulse wave. Wave 4 appears to have traced out a symmetrical triangle into today’s low of 47 bp. If so, 10-year swap spreads are about to widen dramatically as wave 5 carries them beyond the wave 3 peak of 65 bp."

NYSE is within 15pts (28 bps) from monthly wave 1 low of structural bear market which began on Labor Day 2000.

NYSE closing print on 9/8/2003=5805.60

NYSE EXACT 50% retracement from all time high=5805.18

Watch price behavior near this structural and natural focal point.

(There are also multi-month static and dynamic cycles supporting this pivot.)

Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit
By Jenny Wiggins in New York

Economists fear that Asian investors, who are the largest foreign owners of
US Treasuries, may cut their holdings of US government debt, withdrawing a
key source of financing for America's large current account deficit.