An opportunity to get long MSFT w/ solid, well defined risk (24.63).

JBLU looks attractive in here (22.15).

2/04 projection HERE

Shorting Crude (CLK4, 36.33) to complement USD (DXM4) long position

In brief, Bush’s most powerful political vehicle is the US Stock market. The means to a higher stock market is the short term interest rate complex which will remain unchanged this year, unless the DOW rises above 11K. Most relevant to this macro trade is the USD. The USD bottomed during the second week of FEB (long since FEB 17). Karl Rove cannot allow Crude Oil to remain steady/rise as the USD strengthens; this will undermine the global economy and, in turn, rile the US stock market’s ascent.
Crude are close to a crest. Recently, Chavez’s threat has been broadcast across the world, OPEC reiterated that it will stick to its supply cut, and Europe’s largest terror attacks occurred in Madrid...and crude did not make new highs.
Acts of terrorism benefit the incumbent party when they are aligned with the ‘War on Terrorism’; conveniently, early reports pointing to the Basque Separatist Group were ‘revised’ to Al Qaeda branding. Yesterday’s Madrid bombings officially launched the Bush re-election campaign. Now, the macro pieces touched upon above should begin to fall into place. Crude Oil is the single most important element to this global puzzle.

Declining C waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. -Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle
wC=VIX +53% | VDAX +58%
JAN 5 2004..................MAR 10 2004

Analogous Times

GE

Vol

One of the gravest and most persistent errors of the losing spec investor, is he who constantly derides the economic numbers on the grounds that they're very much opposite from the market's reaction. most of the economic numbers are in the main ephemral as to their predictions for the future, their relation to anticipations, their signaling of future numbers, and their discounted nature. i had a squash opponent who only liked to play a classic game . when i didnt, he'd mutter " this isnt squash mate" and hed give up with dignity as only the australians and kiwis can. it would be better for those who think their economic analysis is better than the market's reaction especially vis a vis currencies and stock indexes to quit while they still have some dignity, the remainder of their rapidly dimihnishing chips ( on a opportunity cost basis), and before they inflict harm on too many others who are lulled into making excessive contribututions by this fatal conceit.
(Victor Niederhoffer)

Broad structural analysis was conducted on Spanish Broadcasting Systems, Inc (SBSA) on JAN 12 projecting a price high ~12.25 and time pivot of FEB 18.
Result: High print attained was 12.35, and sharp decline occurred post FEB 18.

Sell/Short Federated Department Stores (FD) @53.60
An in-depth brief will follow.
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