Supported by higher yields than the meagre ones available elsewhere, loose monetary policy and a growing economy, many pundits in the junk community are predicting another bumper year next year.

Not all of them, however.

In a talk this week, William Kourakos, the head of leveraged finance at Morgan Stanley, asks: “Have we reached the top of the mountain?” Quite possibly, is the short answer. Spreads are at record lows, and though they are unlikely to widen much for now because conditions are still positive, Mr Kourakos has looming concerns. A rise in short-term rates could hurt many companies because they have not restructured as much as fans would have you believe. Moreover, debt has not fallen much as a percentage of cashflow; nor have interest payments in relation to profits (so-called interest coverage).

For one thing, it is hard to know how much companies have in fact lengthened the maturity of their debts because the interest-rate swap market allows them to swap those fixed bond payments into cheaper floating debt, a popular strategy in the investment-grade market.

Although credit conditions have been so loose, S&P is still downgrading far more non-investment-grade companies than it is upgrading: 73% of its ratings actions are still downgrades.

Which is worrying when yields have been chased so low, and investors are now so badly rewarded for taking risk. The slowdown in America that followed the puncturing of the bubble was not a normal one, and nor is the recovery, heady though it is. The country, its companies and its citizens are all weighed down with debt, which is why the current-account deficit is so high and the dollar is having a tough time of it. Quite possibly, the Fed will have to put rates up sharply if the dollar goes into freefall, or put them down again, if currency movements allow it, should the recovery run out of steam. The junk-bond market will lose either way.